Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
